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Categories
| The Right Timing: Overhead resistance at 1,405-1,435 |
| Business & Market 2009 | |||
| Written by The Edge Malaysia | |||
| Monday, 20 July 2009 00:00 | |||
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Technical readings  Elliott Wave Daily chart: By using a short-term Elliott Wave count, the FBM KLCI continues to unfold the various degrees of the impulsive A-B-C waves of its major corrective wave (B). The FBM KLCI closed at 1,120.90 points last Friday. Weekly chart: The FBM KLIC’s weekly wave counts were in line with that of its daily wave counts. Elliott Oscillator Both of the FBM KLCI’s Elliott Trigger and its Elliott Oscillator continued to stay above their respective zero regions. Other Indicators Its daily and weekly stochastics stayed in their respective overbought levels. Its monthly stochastics stayed in its neutral level. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) The FBM KLCI’s daily and weekly fast MACDs continued to stay above their respective slow MACDs. Its monthly fast MACD continued to stay below its monthly slow MACD. Expert Trend Index The readings are “bullish”, “bullish” and “bullish” for short, medium and long term, respectively. Profit Taking Index (PTI) Using the original Elliott wave count, PTI displays high readings of 99 and 80 on its daily and monthly charts respectively. Displaced Moving Averages (DMA) The FBM KLCI continued to stay above its daily and weekly DMA levels of 1,067 and 968 respectively. It continued to stay below its monthly DMA level of 1,142. Divergence There was no divergence on its daily MACD, Stochastics and Relative Strength Index to FBM KLCI’s daily chart. Make Or Break (MOB) The revised weekly MOB resistance is further revised lower to its overhead resistance of 1,100 to 1,200. The FBM KLCI hit its intra-week high of 1,121.66 on July 17. Support The FBM KLCI’s immediate downside support is now revised to 1,020-1,050. It staged a successful re-test of the support when it hit its intra-week low of 1,028.14 on June 23. Resistance Its immediate overhead resistance is now revised to the 1,150–1,180 levels. FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA SECOND BOARD INDEX Technical readings  Elliott Wave Daily chart: The FBM2BRD closed at 4,842.37 points on July 17. Weekly chart: The market is seen to unfold a technical rebound in the medium term. No significant sign of a REVERSAL from the downside. Monthly chart: Likewise, it has not completed the downside cycle in the long term yet. It is unfolding a technical corrective WAVE 4. Elliott Oscillator The FBM2BRD’s Elliott Trigger and its Elliott Oscillator continued to stay above their respective zero regions. Other Indicators Its daily and weekly stochastics stayed in their respective oversold levels while its monthly stochastics continued to stay in its neutral level. MACD The FBM2BRD’s daily and weekly fast MACDs stayed above their respective slow MACDs. Its monthly fast MACD stayed below its monthly slow MACD. Expert Trend Index The readings are “neutral”, “bullish” and “neutral” for short, medium and long term, respectively. PTI Moderate readings are seen on the daily, weekly and monthly charts, suggesting that the market is unlikely to re-test the low of 78 for the long-term support. DMA The FBM2BRD had since stayed above its daily, weekly and monthly DMA levels of 4,405 and 4,365 and 4,655 respe3ctively. Divergence There were no negative divergence on its daily stochastics and Relative Strength Index to the FBM2BRD on its daily chart. Make Or Break (MOB) The FBM2BRD’s MOB support is now revised to the 4,900-5,200 level. FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA MESDAQ INDEX Technical readings  Elliott Wave Daily chart: The FBM-MDQ’s recent impulsive wave was terminated in tandem with that of the KLCI. It closed at 4,077.68 points last Friday. Weekly chart: The FBM-MDQ has yet to complete the retracement of its corrective A-B-C waves of its major corrective wave (B). Monthly chart: Its wave retracement had completed the first leg of its intermediate-term correction. It is currently unfolding the second leg of its wave correction. Elliott Oscillator The FBM-MDQ’s Elliott Trigger stayed below its zero region while its Elliott Oscillator continued to stay above its zero region. Other Indicators The FBM-MDQ’s daily and weekly stochastics stayed in their respective overbought levels. Its monthly stochastics stayed in its neutral level. MACD The FBM-MDQ’s daily and weekly fast MACDs stayed above their respective slow MACDs. Its monthly fast MACD stayed below its monthly slow MACD. Expert Trend Index “Bullish” and “neutral” readings continued to register for the medium and long-term perspective respectively. Its short- term reading had since turned “neutral” for the moment. PTI Using the original Elliott wave count, PTI had since rebounded to 73 on its daily chart while it dropped to 19 on its weekly chart. DMA The FBM-MDQ continued to stay above its daily and weekly DMA levels of 4,082 and 3,509. It stayed below its monthly DMA level of 4,155. Divergence There were significant negative divergences on its daily MACD and Relative Strength Index to the FBM-MDQ on its daily chart. MOB The FBM-MDQ’s MOB support is now revised to the 3,750 - 3,890 levels. Resistance The FBM-MDQ’s next resistance is now raised to the 7,400 level. Support Its immediate downside support is revised to the 3,700-3,800 levels. Resistance Its immediate upside resistance hovers at the 7,000 level. Market review Share prices on Bursa Malaysia started the week on a cautious note last Monday before unleashing a sudden reversal over the next four trading days. The FBM KLCI continued to stay above its critical support of 1,050 when it closed at 1,120.90 points last Friday. The FBM KLCI rebounded from its intra-week low of 1,060.96 last Monday to its intra-week high of 1,121.66 last Friday, giving an intra-week trading range of 60.70 points. Based on the trading activities as at July 17, the FBM KLCI traced out a week-on-week gain of 53.14 points, or 4.98%, to 1,120.90. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mesdaq Index jumped 210.95 points, or 5.46%,to 4,077.68 while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Second Board Index gained 132.88 points, or 2.82%, to 4,842.37. Market outlook Once again, persistent buying of the FBM KLCI’s 30 index-linked counters sent the market into a frenzy. The FBM KLCI staged an overhead re-penetration of the 1,100 level. Last week, this column commented that the top 10 components of the FBM KLCI would determine the reversal of the index. It did just that. The FBM KLCI rebounded 53.14 points to close higher at 1,120.90 last Friday. This week, the FBM KLCI is likely to stage a mild follow-through rebound on Monday before slipping into consolidation mood to consolidate its recent rebound gains. Second and third liners may now come in for some speculative plays. The FBM KLCI’s overhead resistance is at 1,125-1,160 while its downside support is at 1,080-1,115. This article appeared in Capital page of The Edge Malaysia, Issue 764, July 20-July 26, 2009
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