KLCI falls to below 1,540 as global stocks retreat
Tan Chong to see better 2H, says ED
MPHB proposes demerger of gaming, non-gaming units
HSL 1Q net profit up 10.86% to RM19.69m
TSH projects capex up to RM1b over next 5 years
Rafidah tells unions not to block efficiency measures
World wheat bounty at risk
Categories
| Global adex expected to shrink 9.9% this year |
| Media & Advertising | |||
| Written by Emily Tan | |||
| Thursday, 05 November 2009 11:26 | |||
|
“This downgrade almost entirely relates to first-half activity; we are confident the second half of the year will be much less painful for the ad market and expect the market to hit bottom before the end of 2009,” the media services agency said in an Oct 19 statement. In the first half of the year, the world’s largest media owners suffered an average drop of 13.1% in media revenues and even so, “this probably understates the decline suffered by the industry as a whole”, said the statement. Only Google enjoyed a growth of 4% in the first half thanks to the growth of Internet advertising — the only form that has continued to grow, it said. In light of this development, ZenithOptimedia now forecasts a meagre 0.5% recovery in 2010, down from their initial July forecast of 1.6%. The agency noted a sharp disparity between developed markets — which are expected to shrink a further 2.9% — and developing markets which can anticipate a strong 7.8% growth. The statement defined developed markets as North America, Western Europe and Japan. “The credit crisis has exposed deep structural problems in developed economies that will take years to resolve. In contrast, many developing markets have continued to grow throughout the crisis, while adex has continued to growth in 27 developing markets and we predict that number will nearly double to 52 next year,” observed ZenithOptimedia. Recovery for developed markets will continue to be slow in 2011 with a growth forecast of 1.5%. Developing markets are expected to grow 9.8% in 2011, raising global adex growth to 4.3% that year. Developing markets’ share of the global adex pie is also expected to rise in tandem, with ZenithOptimedia predicting it would reach 35% in 2011, up from 29% last year. Malaysian adex, as reported by Nielsen Advertising Information Services, is in line with the prediction for developing markets with a growth of 3.8% to RM4.7 billion for the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year. This growth was largely driven by spending by pharmaceutical (36%), industrial (35%), education (22%), retail (21%) and government (21%) sectors. Office and business equipment (-37%), alcoholic beverages (-22%) and IT (-22%) have cut the most on ad spend. Overall, all media except the Internet are expected to see adex shrink this year. Newspapers and magazines are forecast to fall 17% globally this year, and magazines to shrink 20% in line with the downward trend the print medium has seen since 2007, said ZenithOptimedia. Prospects for other media are slightly more optimistic and ZenithOptimedia expects TV, cinema, and outdoor to return to growth in 2010, followed by radio in 2011. In Malaysia, newspapers outperformed the global average with a drop of only 2%, while magazines were harder hit with a drop of 12% for the period January to September this year compared with the same period last year. TV showed a growth of 11%, radio was up by 21%, outdoor 18% higher, the Internet up by 4.3% and point-of-sale grew 13%. Globally, Internet advertising is forecast to grow by 9.2% this year with most of the growth coming from paid search and innovative formats. In the US, paid search is expected to grow by 20% this year, Internet video by 19% , social media by 45% and mobile by 69%. Online display and classifieds are unimpressive with a forecast growth of 3% and 2% respectively. ZenithOptimedia also expects the Internet’s share of the pie to grow to 14.9% in 2011, up from 10.2% last year. ZenithOptimedia is part of the world’s largest media services group and is fully owned by Publicis Groupe. This article appeared on the Media & Advertising page, The Edge Financial Daily, Nov 5, 2009.
|
|||
|
|